The spotlight in this assembly election is on Vidarbha, which has 62 seats across 11 districts and is poised to play a crucial role in government formation. It is a fiercely contested region between Mahayuti and the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). In 2019, BJP emerged as the dominant force in the region, winning 29 seats, followed by Congress at 15, the undivided NCP at six, and unified Shiv Sena at four. Smaller parties and independents, including Prahar Janshakti, secured five seats. With the split in NCP and Shiv Sena and the rise of independents, Vidarbha is now a key battleground.
East Vidarbha, comprising Nagpur, Wardha, Gadchiroli, Chandrapur, Gondia, and Bhandara districts, has historically been a BJP stronghold. However, internal conflicts and a resurgent MVA pose a serious challenge to Mahayuti's dominance, with significant BJP and Congress heavyweights in Nagpur facing resistance.
Nagpur, with 12 politically significant seats, is set for high-stakes battles. BJP, which won 11 seats in 2014, saw its tally fall to six in 2019. Congress aims to capitalize on anti-incumbency sentiment, particularly in South and Central constituencies in Nagpur city where it narrowly lost to BJP last time. The party also seeks to strengthen its foothold in Nagpur North and West seats won in 2019.
In rural Nagpur, Congress focuses on farmer distress and local developmental issues that challenged BJP in 2019. BJP relies on popular local leaders and organizational strength to retain its seats.
Battle lines are being drawn in Wardha, where BJP faces tough competition from Congress. In Deoli, it's anticipated to be a BJP vs Congress or Shiv Sena contest, while Hinganghat and Arvi present their own unique electoral challenges.In Gadchiroli, there are internal conflicts within the BJP, a politically sensitive district with both alliances considering their options for candidates. BJP MLA Dr. Deorao Holi has suggested growing dissent within the party. The MVA is making efforts to replace the BJP, with NCP's Bhagyashree Atram challenging her own father, Dharamrao Baba Atram, for the Aheri seat. A close battle between Congress and BJP is anticipated in Armori.
Chandrapur is set for a tough electoral contest in its six constituencies - an industrial hub and a BJP stronghold. In Chandrapur constituency, Shiv Sena and BJP are vying for independent MLA Kishor Jorgewar's support. BJP leader Sudhir Mungantiwar, facing strong competition after the Lok Sabha elections, is vying for victory in Ballarpur. Congress's Vijay Wadettiwar aims for a third consecutive term in Bramhapuri. The Warora seat, left vacant by Congress MLA Pratibha Dhanorkar's Lok Sabha win, may go to Wadettiwar's daughter Shivani. In Rajura, Congress MLA Subhash Dhote may be challenged by a BJP candidate.
In Gondia, strategies are being finalized for the electoral battle. Independent MLA Vinod Agrawal, who is now with the BJP, faces opposition from Congress's Gopaldas Agrawal in Gondia. BJP's Vijay Rahangdale will contest against NCP's Ravikant Bopche in Tiroda. The political scenario in Arjuni Moragaon is still uncertain, with the candidate from NCP (Ajit Pawar) expected to be announced soon. Congress's Sasharam Korote is preparing for a tough competition in Amgaon against an as-yet-unnamed BJP candidate.
Bhandara's three constituencies are reserved for Scheduled Castes. Independent MLA Narendra Bhondekar, an ally of Shinde, is encountering opposition from within the BJP over his nomination. In Tumsar, NCP's Raju Karemore will stand against Charan Waghmare, a former MLA who is now with the NC.P (Sharad Pawar), the Congress is also interested in the seat, adding to the intrigue in Sakoli, currently represented by MPCC president Nana Patole. There is expected to be a close contest with multiple BJP candidates competing for the party ticket. The western Vidarbha region, including Amravati, Yavatmal, Akola, Washim, and Buldhana districts, has traditionally been a stronghold for the MVA, but the BJP has made headway in the past two elections. However, internal conflicts over seat-sharing between the Congress, NCP, and Shiv Sena are complicating their election strategies.
Amravati is set to be a hub of political activity, with fierce electoral contests expected, particularly in the main district seat. Congress and NCP (Ajit Pawar) are contending for supremacy, while smaller parties like MNS could add to the complexity. In Badnera, the BJP ally Yuva Swabhiman Party's Ravi Rana is anticipated to face off against either Shiv Sena or NCP. Former minister Yashomati Thakur of Congress aims for her fourth consecutive victory in Teosa, while other seats like Dhamangaon Railway and Morshi will witness intense BJP vs Congress or NCP battles.
In Yavatmal, the BJP has made significant gains in what was traditionally a Congress stronghold district. Out of the seven seats, five are now under BJP control. Congress, still influential in Pusad and Digras, is striving to regain lost ground. The MVA's ongoing seat-sharing discussions are causing uncertainty regarding their election prospects in the district.
Akola is gearing up for a quadrangular contest with Mahayuti, MVA, VBA, and Prahar Janshakti likely to field strong candidates. Akot and Murtizapur, reserved for Scheduled Castes, will witness tough battles, as the BJP aims to maintain its dominance. In Akola West, the BJP needs to select candidates following the passing of veteran leader Govardhandas Sharma, while in the East, they may retain MLA Randhir Sawarkar.
Washim is bracing for a triangular battle in the Karanja and Risod constituencies.There is expected to be a triangular competition among Mahayuti, MVA, and VBA. The BJP is likely to nominate Lakhan Malik in Washim again, while a new candidate will be chosen for Karanja after the passing of current MLA Rajendra Patni. Amit Zanak from the Congress is seeking his fourth term in Risod. In Buldhana, there will be a contest between Sena (UBT) and Sena (Shinde) in various constituencies, instead of the usual showdown of the undivided Shiv Sena party. Uddhav's Shiv Sena is aiming for the Buldhana and Mehkar seats, with Congress focusing on Malkapur, Chikhli, Jalgaon Jamod, and Khamgaon. The NCP (Sharad Pawar) might nominate Rajendra Shingane in Sindkhed Raja, although internal conflicts within the MVA could complicate this election.